The S&P 500 index fell on Friday, but snapped a third straight week of gains after last week’s three record closes. For the week, the S&P 500 rose just over 0.6%. On Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ended at an all-time high, rising nearly 0.6%. The Nasdaq rose nearly 1%, but remained a few percentage points below its July 10 all-time closing price. Friday was further confirmation that inflation remains on the right track. Stock prices didn’t react much, but the 10-year Treasury yield fell. This is a big deal. Because while the short end of the bond market yield curve has fallen significantly since the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50 basis points last week, the long end has actually risen. That’s because it hasn’t helped much in lowering mortgage interest rates. August numbers from the Fed’s favorite inflation measure, released before Wall Street’s opening bell on Friday, were subdued. The key personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index rose 2.2% year-on-year, weaker than expected and the smallest increase since February 2021. Core PCE, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 2.7% year-on-year, exactly in line. Expectations. The Fed’s inflation target is 2%, so we’re getting close to that. There were no surprises in inflation after lower-than-expected weekly new jobless claims and a solid final reading on second-quarter economic growth on Thursday, but investors were disappointed. I felt like I was able to get through last week with peace of mind. Easing inflation and an improving economy continued to bode well for stock holdings, as the market expected the Fed to cut rates by another 75 basis points by the end of the year. Last week’s rise in stock prices exacerbated the market’s overbought situation. The S&P Short Range Oscillator was overbought for nine consecutive sessions on Friday, but only slightly above the threshold. Our discipline requires us to consider cutting stocks if the market becomes overbought. It cut its position in GE Healthcare on Friday and made small sales to Metaplatform, Alphabet and Danaher on Wednesday. Costco was the only club name to report revenue last week. After Thursday’s close, the retailer posted a higher quarterly profit, but sales were slightly lower. The numbers were fine, but they served as a lot of reminders about why Costco investors should stick around. We raised our price target to $950 per share from $875, but maintained a ‘wait for return 2′ rating in case there is another move before moving higher. Over the next week, club name Constellation Brands will release quarterly results and the government’s September employment report. Jobs, Jobs, Jobs Friday’s big update on the state of the labor market is a major market event that could have a major impact on Wall Street and the Fed’s path to rate cuts. The data will come under particular scrutiny given that it is the first reading since the central bank began its monetary easing cycle at its September meeting earlier this month. At the time, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell suggested that policymakers would pay closer attention to the labor market, saying, “We believe the risks to achieving our employment and inflation goals are approximately balanced, and we are “We are paying close attention to the risks on both sides.” It’s part of our dual mission. ” Recall that approximately two-thirds of economic activity in the United States is driven by consumer spending. As a result, job and wage stability are key to avoiding recession. Economists expect nonfarm payrolls to rise by 150,000 in September, the unemployment rate to remain stable at 4.2%, and hourly wages to rise by 3.8% annually, the same level as in August. becomes. Ahead of Friday’s jobs report, ADP will release its September overview of U.S. corporate employment trends. The Street is seeking 125,000 additional civilian payrolls. Although the ADP is an important report, it is primarily used to handicap government nonfarm payrolls. ADP as a barometer was significantly depressed during the COVID-19 period and immediately after the pandemic, but has improved recently. Beer business Constellation Brands is scheduled to report before the start of trading on Thursday. The Modelo, Corona and Pacifico company updated its fiscal 2025 outlook on Sept. 3, lowering its net sales outlook to reflect slight headwinds in its beer business and continued challenges in wine and spirits. However, the recent decline in stock prices was already a reflection of the sluggish sales environment, so the market took this news seriously. There was also a sigh of relief that management raised the lower end of its full-year earnings per share forecast, with the expectation that higher beer margins would offset slower sales growth. With this revision, we will focus on Constellation Brands’ ability to increase beer volume and maintain strong margins in the coming quarters. Also, what new plans does management have for its wine and spirits business, and whether it has ramped up the company’s share buyback program after its stock price fell below $240 in late summer. I’m also interested in One Week Ahead Monday, September 30th Before the Bell: Carnival (CCL) Tuesday, October 1st at 10am ET: ISM Manufacturing PMI 10am ET: JOLTS Jobs Before the Bell: Paychecks (PAYX), McCormick & Company (MKC) After the bell: Nike (NKE) Wednesday, October 2, 8:15 a.m. ET: September ADP Report Before the bell: Conagra (CAG) After the bell: Levi Strauss (LEVI) Thursday, October 3rd 8:30am ET: First Unemployment Insurance Claims 10am ET: Factory Orders 10am ET: ISM Services PMI Before the Bell: Constellation Brands (STZ) October 4 Sunday, Friday, 8:30 a.m. ET: September Employment Report (See full list of stocks here ) As a subscriber to Jim Cramer’s CNBC Investment Club, you’ll receive trade alerts before Jim makes a trade. receive. After Jim sends a trade alert, he waits 45 minutes before buying or selling stocks in his charitable trust’s portfolio. If Jim talks about a stock on CNBC TV, he will issue a trade alert and then wait 72 hours before executing the trade. 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People walk outside the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on September 13, 2024 in New York City.
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of S&P500 The index fell on Friday, but last week saw its third consecutive week of gains on the back of three record closes.
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